2010 Fiesta Bowl
It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:
If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.
The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.
Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.
This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.
We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.
So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.
The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.
Now since this is about the Fiesta bowl, we know they pick AFTER the Orange bowl…but there are some complications. The Fiesta bowl is normally obligated to take the Big 12 Champion…UNLESS that same team is in the National Championship. If that happens, then they are free to take anyone else. Since Texas is (in this example) in the BCS Title game, they can pick any other two teams (minding you that they can’t pick Oregon or Ohio State because of the Rose Bowl.
It is quite likely that the Orange Bowl will take Georgia Tech because they must take the ACC champs, and it might be quite desirable that they will also take Cincinnati, because they are undefeated and nearer to the site of the Orange Bowl (Florida) than TCU or Boise State. If such is the case, who then would the Fiesta Bowl take?
I believe the Fiesta would have a choice of three teams…TCU, Boise State and Alabama. Two are undefeated (TCU and BSU), but you have a quality team in Alabama, and you know they travel well. I could see the Fiesta Bowl taking Alabama, because I am not so sure they want to take a repeat of TCU/Boise State…after all they played last year.
So I think either TCU or Boise State would be out, but can you ignore a bowl with two undefeated teams? This puts the Fiesta Bowl in a tough spot. A TCU/Alabama game would be nice, but so would a Boise State/Alabama game. I think if all things being equal, I think TCU and Alabama would be their choice. Alabama played the tougher schedule and is indeed better with one loss than Boise State with none, and TCU has the tough schedule to prove they are better than Boise State.
So that’s who I see in the Fiesta at this moment, TCU and Alabama.
Showing posts with label Alabama Football SEC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alabama Football SEC. Show all posts
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
How good is Alabama football?
How good is Alabama?
Let’s take a hard look at the Alabama Crimson Tide, and see the greatness of the team…or how they might be a little over rated.
This is not made in cruel jest to the fans of Alabama, but let’s face it, to be a GREAT team, there has to be some strong indicators of it, and the signs of a great team are not just in wins, but WHO you beat, WHERE you beat them, and how much.
Last night, during the Boise State/Tulsa game, Lou Holtz (of whom I am NOT a fan of) said that style points didn’t matter when you are trying to prove to the nation how good you are…
That is spaghetti hogwash!
The power of a team is strongly based on who you beat and by how much. So I use that formula to examine whether Alabama is worthy of the #3 ranking that much of the pollsters feel they belong.
We start from last year, because it is how they vaulted so high at the beginning of this year.
Last year Alabama finished 12-2, one of the better teams of the nation. I mean, surely if you come out of the SEC with such a record, and only lose two games that year, it means you are poised for a real shot at the National Championship, right?
Alabama went 12-0 at one point, until it came to playing Florida in the SEC Championship, and lost that by 11. They went to a bowl and lost to Utah by 14. The Crimson Tide lost to two “better than average” teams. So am I implying that all they beat were “average” teams last year? Let’s examine:
Factor out the cupcakes like Western Kentucky and Arkansas State and we’ll start with the 10 teams they played. They beat Clemson first, and remember this was a team ranked as one of the top 10, maybe top 5 in the nation…how did that work out? Finished a dismal 7-6.
Then there was Tulane…finished 2-10. But by then the nation thought that Alabama was immediately a top 5 team because they dismantled Clemson, who clearly was not who anybody thought they were.
So now we get into the SEC schedule. Home game wins over Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Auburn. The latter two teams didn’t even qualify for a bowl, Kentucky goes 7-6 and Mississippi turns out to be a decent team, so credit to Alabama for winning that game. The Kentucky and MSU games turn out to be closer than the other home games.
The road games included Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. Arkansas and Tennessee don’t win enough to qualify for a bowl, but Georgia has a 10 win season, and LSU has a good 8 win season. The Georgia win on the road may well have been Alabama’s best win of the year.
If you melt down the games and pick out the defining games, it would have to be the road wins over Georgia and LSU. This indeed validates Alabama as a good team…but a top 10 team? I think so. Top 5? I am not too certain.
Now fast forward to this year, 2009.
Currently 6-0, let’s go ahead and factor out Florida International and North Texas. These are cupcake games that do not factor in the greatness of a team should they win, but cripple a season when they lose. Simply put, Alabama was supposed to win those anyway.
But what of Virginia Tech? Now THAT is a credible win. Virginia Tech has only lost one game so far this year…to this very same Alabama squad. Some might question the strength of the ACC, but to me, this is a very valid win for Alabama.
So now we look at their other wins, home at Arkansas, and on the road at Kentucky and then ranked #20 Mississippi. This Arkansas team might be pretty decent, after knocking off ranked Auburn, but is this an over rated team? Still many more games to go, and Arkansas has historically been a mid-card team.
Kentucky has lost 3 straight, after barely beating Louisville in the second game…looks like a basement team for the SEC. Mississippi was once a top 5 team but we all found out that this was mirror magic. As Dennis Green once said of the Chicago Bears, “they are who we THOUGHT they were!”
So right now, Alabama has a good win over Virginia Tech, and the jury is still out on Arkansas. That is the length of their greatness…does THAT warrant a top 3 ranking?
I gotta tell ya, I am not fully convinced about a top 3 ranking, especially since many teams got political slides based on other teams losing. You tell me how Mississippi can jump up to #4 because better teams lost big time games. Many teams got that advantage this year, only to prove that they weren’t worth the high ranking. Is Alabama the same way? Remember folks, this was a team that went 12-0 over an average schedule, or slightly better than average, before losing to Florida and Utah, back to back.
Top 10? Definitely! Top 5? No probs with that. Top 3? Not too sure. Not yet.
Let’s take a hard look at the Alabama Crimson Tide, and see the greatness of the team…or how they might be a little over rated.
This is not made in cruel jest to the fans of Alabama, but let’s face it, to be a GREAT team, there has to be some strong indicators of it, and the signs of a great team are not just in wins, but WHO you beat, WHERE you beat them, and how much.
Last night, during the Boise State/Tulsa game, Lou Holtz (of whom I am NOT a fan of) said that style points didn’t matter when you are trying to prove to the nation how good you are…
That is spaghetti hogwash!
The power of a team is strongly based on who you beat and by how much. So I use that formula to examine whether Alabama is worthy of the #3 ranking that much of the pollsters feel they belong.
We start from last year, because it is how they vaulted so high at the beginning of this year.
Last year Alabama finished 12-2, one of the better teams of the nation. I mean, surely if you come out of the SEC with such a record, and only lose two games that year, it means you are poised for a real shot at the National Championship, right?
Alabama went 12-0 at one point, until it came to playing Florida in the SEC Championship, and lost that by 11. They went to a bowl and lost to Utah by 14. The Crimson Tide lost to two “better than average” teams. So am I implying that all they beat were “average” teams last year? Let’s examine:
Factor out the cupcakes like Western Kentucky and Arkansas State and we’ll start with the 10 teams they played. They beat Clemson first, and remember this was a team ranked as one of the top 10, maybe top 5 in the nation…how did that work out? Finished a dismal 7-6.
Then there was Tulane…finished 2-10. But by then the nation thought that Alabama was immediately a top 5 team because they dismantled Clemson, who clearly was not who anybody thought they were.
So now we get into the SEC schedule. Home game wins over Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Auburn. The latter two teams didn’t even qualify for a bowl, Kentucky goes 7-6 and Mississippi turns out to be a decent team, so credit to Alabama for winning that game. The Kentucky and MSU games turn out to be closer than the other home games.
The road games included Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. Arkansas and Tennessee don’t win enough to qualify for a bowl, but Georgia has a 10 win season, and LSU has a good 8 win season. The Georgia win on the road may well have been Alabama’s best win of the year.
If you melt down the games and pick out the defining games, it would have to be the road wins over Georgia and LSU. This indeed validates Alabama as a good team…but a top 10 team? I think so. Top 5? I am not too certain.
Now fast forward to this year, 2009.
Currently 6-0, let’s go ahead and factor out Florida International and North Texas. These are cupcake games that do not factor in the greatness of a team should they win, but cripple a season when they lose. Simply put, Alabama was supposed to win those anyway.
But what of Virginia Tech? Now THAT is a credible win. Virginia Tech has only lost one game so far this year…to this very same Alabama squad. Some might question the strength of the ACC, but to me, this is a very valid win for Alabama.
So now we look at their other wins, home at Arkansas, and on the road at Kentucky and then ranked #20 Mississippi. This Arkansas team might be pretty decent, after knocking off ranked Auburn, but is this an over rated team? Still many more games to go, and Arkansas has historically been a mid-card team.
Kentucky has lost 3 straight, after barely beating Louisville in the second game…looks like a basement team for the SEC. Mississippi was once a top 5 team but we all found out that this was mirror magic. As Dennis Green once said of the Chicago Bears, “they are who we THOUGHT they were!”
So right now, Alabama has a good win over Virginia Tech, and the jury is still out on Arkansas. That is the length of their greatness…does THAT warrant a top 3 ranking?
I gotta tell ya, I am not fully convinced about a top 3 ranking, especially since many teams got political slides based on other teams losing. You tell me how Mississippi can jump up to #4 because better teams lost big time games. Many teams got that advantage this year, only to prove that they weren’t worth the high ranking. Is Alabama the same way? Remember folks, this was a team that went 12-0 over an average schedule, or slightly better than average, before losing to Florida and Utah, back to back.
Top 10? Definitely! Top 5? No probs with that. Top 3? Not too sure. Not yet.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Alabama vs Mississippi
Alabama vs. Mississippi
Now that we have seen that Ole Miss isn’t that top 5 team some thought they were, now it is time for them to show that they are at least a top 25 team.
And on the other end, this is Alabama’s golden chance to make a serious statement in the SEC and in the nation.
I’ll be honest, I am not totally sold on Alabama, even though they were 12-2 last year. The Crimson Tide beat a Clemson team that had nothing in them last year, and the only legit wins for the Tide was beating Ole Miss by 4 at home, and LSU on the road by 6. I gotta be honest, I am not too impressed by the record last year, and it showed when they played Florida and lost…then played Utah…and lost.
But beating Virginia Tech is impressive, considering what the Hokies have done so far this year, so I cannot argue on that. And beating Arkansas and Kentucky do count for conference wins, but are they a true top 5 team…I am not too sure about that. While the SEC was one of the two best conferences last year, there were a heck of a lot of teams that submerged rather than rose to the surface. Alabama could have possibly taken advantage of being at the right place, at the right time.
But the same can be said for Mississippi. Sure they were 9-4 last year, but they did lose to Vandy, South Carolina and Alabama…oh they also lost to Wake Forest too. Much of their fanfare was based on the fact that they did beat Florida, and also beat a good Texas Tech team last year…but all hopes of an undefeated season ended early when South Carolina punched them in the guts this year, kicking them off the top 10 polls. Now hanging on at #20, they need this win to prove that last year was no fluke.
If Miss can beat Florida, on the road, then why can’t they beat Alabama…at home? This could very possibly be a game that Ole Miss can win, and the victory at home will have the entire state of Mississippi rejoicing. But can they do it?
I have no qualms believing ole Miss is a top 25 team, considering who they beat last year and who they have beaten this year, I see them about right where they should be, about #20 if not a spot or two lower. But a win here validates any moves up, and considering how tough the SEC is this year, that says a heck of a lot.
But do I believe Alabama is a top 5 team? Do I believe they can beat USC, or Penn State, or teams like that? Well, they did beat Virginia Tech, so there is great credibility, but I think they have what it takes to beat Mississippi. Remember, they won by 4 points last year at home, how will the Tide do on the road? Mississippi has lost a few at home, so it’s not like a clear cut home field advantage, but I will nod ever so slightly to the Rebels for some advantage.
But I still pick Alabama to win, by 5 points…yeah I said FIVE!
Now that we have seen that Ole Miss isn’t that top 5 team some thought they were, now it is time for them to show that they are at least a top 25 team.
And on the other end, this is Alabama’s golden chance to make a serious statement in the SEC and in the nation.
I’ll be honest, I am not totally sold on Alabama, even though they were 12-2 last year. The Crimson Tide beat a Clemson team that had nothing in them last year, and the only legit wins for the Tide was beating Ole Miss by 4 at home, and LSU on the road by 6. I gotta be honest, I am not too impressed by the record last year, and it showed when they played Florida and lost…then played Utah…and lost.
But beating Virginia Tech is impressive, considering what the Hokies have done so far this year, so I cannot argue on that. And beating Arkansas and Kentucky do count for conference wins, but are they a true top 5 team…I am not too sure about that. While the SEC was one of the two best conferences last year, there were a heck of a lot of teams that submerged rather than rose to the surface. Alabama could have possibly taken advantage of being at the right place, at the right time.
But the same can be said for Mississippi. Sure they were 9-4 last year, but they did lose to Vandy, South Carolina and Alabama…oh they also lost to Wake Forest too. Much of their fanfare was based on the fact that they did beat Florida, and also beat a good Texas Tech team last year…but all hopes of an undefeated season ended early when South Carolina punched them in the guts this year, kicking them off the top 10 polls. Now hanging on at #20, they need this win to prove that last year was no fluke.
If Miss can beat Florida, on the road, then why can’t they beat Alabama…at home? This could very possibly be a game that Ole Miss can win, and the victory at home will have the entire state of Mississippi rejoicing. But can they do it?
I have no qualms believing ole Miss is a top 25 team, considering who they beat last year and who they have beaten this year, I see them about right where they should be, about #20 if not a spot or two lower. But a win here validates any moves up, and considering how tough the SEC is this year, that says a heck of a lot.
But do I believe Alabama is a top 5 team? Do I believe they can beat USC, or Penn State, or teams like that? Well, they did beat Virginia Tech, so there is great credibility, but I think they have what it takes to beat Mississippi. Remember, they won by 4 points last year at home, how will the Tide do on the road? Mississippi has lost a few at home, so it’s not like a clear cut home field advantage, but I will nod ever so slightly to the Rebels for some advantage.
But I still pick Alabama to win, by 5 points…yeah I said FIVE!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Why is Alabama #4?
Why is Alabama #4
Speedblog
Now of the previous debates, this one is more questionable.
Last year Alabama shocked the world by going 12-2, losing to Florida and Utah… back to back. This year they were ranked in the top 10 and won over fellow-top ten ranked foe Virginia Tech. With the Hokies losing and Oklahoma losing, the Crimson Tide rolls (pardon the pun) to #4.
So….is this legit?
Both polls have Alabama as #4, and one poll gave them two first place votes. Is this legit?
If you are asking me if there are more deserving teams, I think I can argue, but after one week of football, it really does not mean a thing. You can put Duke as the #1 team in college football, because we all know they ain’t going undefeated, so it will solve itself….
(we kid because we love…UNC)
But seriously, is Alabama the fourth best team in the nation?
I kinda wonder, because as I said a moment ago, this team lost their last two games. Yeah, granted it was against Florida and Utah, two very good teams, but it is still two losses in a row. Losing a starting quarterback and a great running back does not help either.
And I gotta tell you, I wasn’t really impressed by the strength of schedule of Alabama, in the so-called powerful SEC. I mean, beating a collapsed Clemson, Tulane and Western Kentucky wasn’t that impressive for a top 10 team. Arkansas finished 5-7, and Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas State was not scaring many people. Mississippi State and Auburn were similar, so one truly wonders about those 8 games.
But credit must be given to beating Georgia and Mississippi and LSU. Those are indeed credible wins. But still, is this enough to give a team a top 5 ranking, at #4? Without playing Georgia or Florida in the regular season, I fear this could be a team that could be 5-0 before they see Mississippi. To me, their schedule just isn’t strong enough to warrant them this high, but nobody can argue the strength of the SEC. I do believe they are a top 10 team, but because it is early, I won’t argue them being #4...
I just don’t see them staying there.
Speedblog
Now of the previous debates, this one is more questionable.
Last year Alabama shocked the world by going 12-2, losing to Florida and Utah… back to back. This year they were ranked in the top 10 and won over fellow-top ten ranked foe Virginia Tech. With the Hokies losing and Oklahoma losing, the Crimson Tide rolls (pardon the pun) to #4.
So….is this legit?
Both polls have Alabama as #4, and one poll gave them two first place votes. Is this legit?
If you are asking me if there are more deserving teams, I think I can argue, but after one week of football, it really does not mean a thing. You can put Duke as the #1 team in college football, because we all know they ain’t going undefeated, so it will solve itself….
(we kid because we love…UNC)
But seriously, is Alabama the fourth best team in the nation?
I kinda wonder, because as I said a moment ago, this team lost their last two games. Yeah, granted it was against Florida and Utah, two very good teams, but it is still two losses in a row. Losing a starting quarterback and a great running back does not help either.
And I gotta tell you, I wasn’t really impressed by the strength of schedule of Alabama, in the so-called powerful SEC. I mean, beating a collapsed Clemson, Tulane and Western Kentucky wasn’t that impressive for a top 10 team. Arkansas finished 5-7, and Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas State was not scaring many people. Mississippi State and Auburn were similar, so one truly wonders about those 8 games.
But credit must be given to beating Georgia and Mississippi and LSU. Those are indeed credible wins. But still, is this enough to give a team a top 5 ranking, at #4? Without playing Georgia or Florida in the regular season, I fear this could be a team that could be 5-0 before they see Mississippi. To me, their schedule just isn’t strong enough to warrant them this high, but nobody can argue the strength of the SEC. I do believe they are a top 10 team, but because it is early, I won’t argue them being #4...
I just don’t see them staying there.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Be cautious college football!!
Be Cautious Today College Football
In answering emails and blogging on my sites, I have been delayed in my weekly warnings to key college football teams. As I write this, it is almost 11am on a Saturday morning, knowing that in one hour the games begin…but who shall warn them of the dangers of today?
8 Big Ten teams play at noon, and there are some cautions I must share with you. It is imperative that someone warns Michigan State when they host Purdue. For the sake of the entire conference, it is actually a good thing if Michigan State wins because it creates a huge scenario when they play Penn State at the end of the regular season.
But I warn you Spartans, do not look past Purdue, who MUST win this game just to stay alive for post season. This team cannot even lose one more game, else they miss out on any hopes for a bowl…and we know that past history has not favored Michigan State well in the second half of a season. This is a game you must win Michigan State, but I warn you, don’t look past Purdue or you will lose and fall out the top 25.
What warnings can I give to Wisconsin? Were they not in the top 10 earlier this year, and yet now they are in dire straits. With 4 wins you must win 2 of the last 3 to qualify for a bowl. But the two teams you face have better records than you, even Indiana? How then can you promise us a victory and a bowl until you settle the matters at hand? I warn you, do not look at Indiana as a simple win, and do not look past them to the Minnesota game. Your post season has been challenged, and you dare not lose another game.
And what of the Big East teams, who have not been so big this year? I have been told by key sources that the Syracuse vs. Rutgers game will mark the demise of one or the other team this very day. For Syracuse, I send you warnings that should you lose this game to Rutgers, your post season is OVER. You must win 6 games to qualify, and your 2-6 record means you must win ALL your remaining games…starting with Rutgers. The only benefit you have is that of your remaining games, only Connecticut has been ranked…but what good is that if you cannot defeat the teams before you?
And do not laugh Rutgers, for your season also may be in ruin. Your 3-5 record is far below expectations, but you have a better chance to make the post season than Syracuse…if you win today. While Syracuse has no margin for error, yours is paper thin. Does that win over Morgan State count? If so then you must win 3 of the last 4 games…if not, you must win ALL four games. And yet, there is such hope, since you did defeat Connecticut AND Pittsburgh back to back…perhaps my warnings are not needed….
And who shall go to Lincoln, Nebraska to warn the Huskers of what may come? You need only one more win to qualify for a bowl, yet today you face Kansas, a team that has known the top 25 quite well. I have heard many rumors about your weak schedule from which you obtained your 5 victories, and yet when it was time to face true competition, you failed. Do not disappoint us Nebraska, for your entire university has been under the curse since you shamelessly booted out Frank Solich several years ago. Odd that you got rid of a good coach because you expected better…but have been living in the exact opposite of that expectation. Now you must earn your way to an average bowl as the elite teams of the Big 12 step over you. I warn you, look not over Kansas, for they too have aspirations….
Who wears the crown, and yet not feel the eyes staring upon that symbol of royalty? Alabama, I warn you, think not that your reign is without reproach, for now you must walk into the pits of Cajun Country and face LSU. For most of they year most believed that your ascension to the top was based only on defaults. We are quite aware of your glorious win over Georgia, but no other wins have impressed us. Some say you are a paper champion, a false king, and they mean to take advantage of that belief.
But what say you, LSU? Did we not believe that you were one of the top 3 teams in the nation, and you took off well by crushing Appalachian State at the beginning of the year? Were you not invincible? Yet now we must question your strength. Beating North Texas proves nothing, and the Auburn win has been swept under the rug. Losing to both Florida and Georgia tells us that you were not worthy of a top 10 ranking. You have lost much honor this year, and only this victory against #1 Alabama will revive your hopes. Which LSU will we see…the team we thought was great, or the team that clearly is not?
Be ye warned Florida State, you are not the ACC Champions yet. You welcome in a very troubled Clemson team, one who has lost their coach. A coach most familiar with your own…how then will emotions play?
For Clemson must now defeat South Carolina, Duke, Virginia and you to make this a decent season, and they do have comfort of losing a game or two. But what team will we see? The one that last 3 ACC games in a row, or the one who just recently defeated Boston College? A team fighting back, or a team fighting to stay alive?
But your troubles are your own, are they not? Do not try to hide from us the cheap wins over my beloved WCU cats and UTC. We are still not sure how great you really are, but we do know that you control your fate in the ACC. A very key game vs. Maryland may well decide if you will play in the ACC Championships, but if you look past Clemson, you will have disappointing results. Mind you, Wake Forest also has an advantage on you because they beat you earlier. You cannot afford another loss…you have been warned…
And speaking of Wake Forest, who then needs the greater warning: Wake Forest or Virginia, the team they must face? For I have seen the turnaround of this Virginia team, when once we all thought them to be failures. But now this same Virginia team must be reckoned with. Dare we even think that after such a terrible start, Virginia has a shot at the Coastal Division Champions, and thus play in the ACC Championship? With a win over Georgia Tech, and a loss to Miami, they are clearly in the mix. Should you defeat Virginia Tech, it may lock you in for the division leader. But your remaining games are not easy, with Wake Forest, Clemson and Virginia Tech. Nothing has been easy for anyone in the ACC, as you may find out today…take warning…
And as for you Wake Forest, where is the songs of triumph we sang with you earlier this year? How dare you BARELY defeat Duke in overtime, where is the greatness we almost crowned you with? I warn you, that 5-3 record may stay frozen on the winning side if you do not show us your true powers. We know Virginia is playing much better than earlier this year. We also know that a state rival in NC State is not a guaranteed win, even if the Wolfpack is doing bad this year. Where then will your victories come from? Boston College? Vanderbilt? Tell us how you plan to make the post season, after playing such a game against Duke? I warn you, step up your game, or the Vanderbilt game will be your LAST game of the year.
And finally, be warned Missouri. Only a few weeks ago we spoke of your leader as a Heisman candidate, and although he still is a great quarterback, much has been forgotten of your team because of the heavy South division of the Big 12. You must still fight to keep your North Division title hopes alive, but only to do what? Play Texas, or Texas Tech, or Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship? It seems that greatness was not destined for you this year, for too many others are simply greater.
But be warned nevertheless, because Kansas State comes with great shame. Shame on you Kansas State and the wicked thoughts you bring to pass. Why hire a coach and not give him time to mature his team? When has Kansas State been on top of the Big 12 for you to think that your coach was supposed to put them there in only a couple of years? Has the wickedness of the Nebraska coaching decision filtered into your porous cranium? Has foolish thoughts of greed and pride taken hold of your senses? If so, then I warn you, losing by 40 points won’t be good enough for the likes of you.
And so it ends, my warnings for this week. With 15 minutes left to spare, no less. Oh well, let’s go enjoy another day of great college football!!!
In answering emails and blogging on my sites, I have been delayed in my weekly warnings to key college football teams. As I write this, it is almost 11am on a Saturday morning, knowing that in one hour the games begin…but who shall warn them of the dangers of today?
8 Big Ten teams play at noon, and there are some cautions I must share with you. It is imperative that someone warns Michigan State when they host Purdue. For the sake of the entire conference, it is actually a good thing if Michigan State wins because it creates a huge scenario when they play Penn State at the end of the regular season.
But I warn you Spartans, do not look past Purdue, who MUST win this game just to stay alive for post season. This team cannot even lose one more game, else they miss out on any hopes for a bowl…and we know that past history has not favored Michigan State well in the second half of a season. This is a game you must win Michigan State, but I warn you, don’t look past Purdue or you will lose and fall out the top 25.
What warnings can I give to Wisconsin? Were they not in the top 10 earlier this year, and yet now they are in dire straits. With 4 wins you must win 2 of the last 3 to qualify for a bowl. But the two teams you face have better records than you, even Indiana? How then can you promise us a victory and a bowl until you settle the matters at hand? I warn you, do not look at Indiana as a simple win, and do not look past them to the Minnesota game. Your post season has been challenged, and you dare not lose another game.
And what of the Big East teams, who have not been so big this year? I have been told by key sources that the Syracuse vs. Rutgers game will mark the demise of one or the other team this very day. For Syracuse, I send you warnings that should you lose this game to Rutgers, your post season is OVER. You must win 6 games to qualify, and your 2-6 record means you must win ALL your remaining games…starting with Rutgers. The only benefit you have is that of your remaining games, only Connecticut has been ranked…but what good is that if you cannot defeat the teams before you?
And do not laugh Rutgers, for your season also may be in ruin. Your 3-5 record is far below expectations, but you have a better chance to make the post season than Syracuse…if you win today. While Syracuse has no margin for error, yours is paper thin. Does that win over Morgan State count? If so then you must win 3 of the last 4 games…if not, you must win ALL four games. And yet, there is such hope, since you did defeat Connecticut AND Pittsburgh back to back…perhaps my warnings are not needed….
And who shall go to Lincoln, Nebraska to warn the Huskers of what may come? You need only one more win to qualify for a bowl, yet today you face Kansas, a team that has known the top 25 quite well. I have heard many rumors about your weak schedule from which you obtained your 5 victories, and yet when it was time to face true competition, you failed. Do not disappoint us Nebraska, for your entire university has been under the curse since you shamelessly booted out Frank Solich several years ago. Odd that you got rid of a good coach because you expected better…but have been living in the exact opposite of that expectation. Now you must earn your way to an average bowl as the elite teams of the Big 12 step over you. I warn you, look not over Kansas, for they too have aspirations….
Who wears the crown, and yet not feel the eyes staring upon that symbol of royalty? Alabama, I warn you, think not that your reign is without reproach, for now you must walk into the pits of Cajun Country and face LSU. For most of they year most believed that your ascension to the top was based only on defaults. We are quite aware of your glorious win over Georgia, but no other wins have impressed us. Some say you are a paper champion, a false king, and they mean to take advantage of that belief.
But what say you, LSU? Did we not believe that you were one of the top 3 teams in the nation, and you took off well by crushing Appalachian State at the beginning of the year? Were you not invincible? Yet now we must question your strength. Beating North Texas proves nothing, and the Auburn win has been swept under the rug. Losing to both Florida and Georgia tells us that you were not worthy of a top 10 ranking. You have lost much honor this year, and only this victory against #1 Alabama will revive your hopes. Which LSU will we see…the team we thought was great, or the team that clearly is not?
Be ye warned Florida State, you are not the ACC Champions yet. You welcome in a very troubled Clemson team, one who has lost their coach. A coach most familiar with your own…how then will emotions play?
For Clemson must now defeat South Carolina, Duke, Virginia and you to make this a decent season, and they do have comfort of losing a game or two. But what team will we see? The one that last 3 ACC games in a row, or the one who just recently defeated Boston College? A team fighting back, or a team fighting to stay alive?
But your troubles are your own, are they not? Do not try to hide from us the cheap wins over my beloved WCU cats and UTC. We are still not sure how great you really are, but we do know that you control your fate in the ACC. A very key game vs. Maryland may well decide if you will play in the ACC Championships, but if you look past Clemson, you will have disappointing results. Mind you, Wake Forest also has an advantage on you because they beat you earlier. You cannot afford another loss…you have been warned…
And speaking of Wake Forest, who then needs the greater warning: Wake Forest or Virginia, the team they must face? For I have seen the turnaround of this Virginia team, when once we all thought them to be failures. But now this same Virginia team must be reckoned with. Dare we even think that after such a terrible start, Virginia has a shot at the Coastal Division Champions, and thus play in the ACC Championship? With a win over Georgia Tech, and a loss to Miami, they are clearly in the mix. Should you defeat Virginia Tech, it may lock you in for the division leader. But your remaining games are not easy, with Wake Forest, Clemson and Virginia Tech. Nothing has been easy for anyone in the ACC, as you may find out today…take warning…
And as for you Wake Forest, where is the songs of triumph we sang with you earlier this year? How dare you BARELY defeat Duke in overtime, where is the greatness we almost crowned you with? I warn you, that 5-3 record may stay frozen on the winning side if you do not show us your true powers. We know Virginia is playing much better than earlier this year. We also know that a state rival in NC State is not a guaranteed win, even if the Wolfpack is doing bad this year. Where then will your victories come from? Boston College? Vanderbilt? Tell us how you plan to make the post season, after playing such a game against Duke? I warn you, step up your game, or the Vanderbilt game will be your LAST game of the year.
And finally, be warned Missouri. Only a few weeks ago we spoke of your leader as a Heisman candidate, and although he still is a great quarterback, much has been forgotten of your team because of the heavy South division of the Big 12. You must still fight to keep your North Division title hopes alive, but only to do what? Play Texas, or Texas Tech, or Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship? It seems that greatness was not destined for you this year, for too many others are simply greater.
But be warned nevertheless, because Kansas State comes with great shame. Shame on you Kansas State and the wicked thoughts you bring to pass. Why hire a coach and not give him time to mature his team? When has Kansas State been on top of the Big 12 for you to think that your coach was supposed to put them there in only a couple of years? Has the wickedness of the Nebraska coaching decision filtered into your porous cranium? Has foolish thoughts of greed and pride taken hold of your senses? If so, then I warn you, losing by 40 points won’t be good enough for the likes of you.
And so it ends, my warnings for this week. With 15 minutes left to spare, no less. Oh well, let’s go enjoy another day of great college football!!!
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
College Football Playoffs, Scenario 1
College Football Playoffs: Scenario #1
Corporate sponsors, Athletic Directors and television station executives all met to discuss the opportunity to create a playoff for Division 1-A Football. The media whined like baby to get a playoff since every other sport does the same, but many argued that there is no true need to have a playoff because in most cases the best team comes out in the end.
But things have changed and we now look at the playoffs through a time portal of “what if”. What if there WAS a playoff in the Division 1-A? Would it solve anything or would it be the answer to years of debate?
Let’s explore this:
The argument first was about how many teams should be able to compete in these playoffs. The argument for 32 or 16 teams were immediately ruled out because if those teams were never in a position to play for a National Championship anyway, and would be a waste of time and extending a season far longer than it should.
There was heavy debate about having 8 teams, but most argued that in most cases the best teams are in the top 5, so allowing an extra three creates room for a good team to enter the contest when the argument is to get the BEST teams in.
The debate came to two conclusions: A four team playoff or a six team playoff, where the top two seeds get a bye. So we look into the “what if” portal to see how this would play out in a different universe…..
The NCAA recognizes the top 6 teams according to the BCS standings. As it stands the #1 and #2 teams will get a bye while the other teams vie for position. We are not very clear on the times these teams play, and under who’s bowls they will be playing, but we can see into the “what if” portal to see WHO is playing whom.
Alabama would be the #1 seed right now, and thus earn a bye. They would play the winner of the #4 vs. #5 game. Texas Tech, with the slimmest of margins, claims the #2 spot, and would also get a bye and play the winner of the #3 vs. #6 game. The ideology here is that of the lesser four teams, the better of those is paired against the least of the four, and the other two play one another. Thus, the 3 seed plays the 6 and the 4 seed plays the 5. But the playoffs also dictate that the LESSER of the two winner must play the #1 seed, while the GREATER of the two winners play the #2 seed.
It does get a bit complicated, but I’ll address that.
I see also in this portal of this universe that there are other factors to consider as well, but we may get to that in a sec.
The rest of the playoff picture seems to look like this: Because Penn State is currently the #3 team by the BCS standards, they will play the #6 team, that being Oklahoma. This leaves the #4 team in Florida to face #5 Texas.
As the number 1 seed, Alabama would face the lowest ranked team of the four and Texas Tech would face the higher seed. The Penn State/Oklahoma game would be a huge game to see, and many fans believe Oklahoma may have an edge because the Big 12 is a stronger conference and they have seen tougher foes than Penn State has faced. Many see Oklahoma winning that.
On the other side, the Florida vs. Texas game seems to be a classic. A delicious game of the two power conferences in a fight to try to settle this year’s argument of who really is the best conference. Forgive me folks, I just can’t see clear enough to tell you the winner of that one.
But it seems that the winner will face Texas Tech as the #2 seed, since Oklahoma’s win over Penn State makes them the lowest seeded team. They would face Alabama and set up a second match of the Big 12 vs. SEC…I do see Oklahoma winning that one.
So it looks like Oklahoma sits and waits for the winner of Texas Tech vs. either Florida or Texas…I think in either case, Texas Tech falls and you have an interesting scenario.
Oklahoma plays a rematch against Texas, or the rubber match of the Big 12 vs. SEC…hmmmm.
But this “what if” universe is not without controversy. Looking outside the playoff circle, Boise State and Utah scream for equality, claiming that the playoffs are not fair to non BCS conference schools. Both teams are undefeated but ranked #9 and #10 on the BCS rankings. The smaller schools scream “foul” and that they need to increase the number of teams in the playoffs. Even Oklahoma State, who’s only loss came to Texas, wonders why Florida is in the playoffs after losing to an unranked team, while the Cowboys hang their only loss to the then number one team in the nation.
And further still, the Pac-10 argues why their conference champion ranked in the top 10 cannot have a shot at the National Title. USC has one loss and is ranked #7 in the BCS polls.
But the ACC and Big East teams remain silent, knowing this wasn’t their year.
Maybe if we look into this universe next week, we can see if it gets clearer….
Corporate sponsors, Athletic Directors and television station executives all met to discuss the opportunity to create a playoff for Division 1-A Football. The media whined like baby to get a playoff since every other sport does the same, but many argued that there is no true need to have a playoff because in most cases the best team comes out in the end.
But things have changed and we now look at the playoffs through a time portal of “what if”. What if there WAS a playoff in the Division 1-A? Would it solve anything or would it be the answer to years of debate?
Let’s explore this:
The argument first was about how many teams should be able to compete in these playoffs. The argument for 32 or 16 teams were immediately ruled out because if those teams were never in a position to play for a National Championship anyway, and would be a waste of time and extending a season far longer than it should.
There was heavy debate about having 8 teams, but most argued that in most cases the best teams are in the top 5, so allowing an extra three creates room for a good team to enter the contest when the argument is to get the BEST teams in.
The debate came to two conclusions: A four team playoff or a six team playoff, where the top two seeds get a bye. So we look into the “what if” portal to see how this would play out in a different universe…..
The NCAA recognizes the top 6 teams according to the BCS standings. As it stands the #1 and #2 teams will get a bye while the other teams vie for position. We are not very clear on the times these teams play, and under who’s bowls they will be playing, but we can see into the “what if” portal to see WHO is playing whom.
Alabama would be the #1 seed right now, and thus earn a bye. They would play the winner of the #4 vs. #5 game. Texas Tech, with the slimmest of margins, claims the #2 spot, and would also get a bye and play the winner of the #3 vs. #6 game. The ideology here is that of the lesser four teams, the better of those is paired against the least of the four, and the other two play one another. Thus, the 3 seed plays the 6 and the 4 seed plays the 5. But the playoffs also dictate that the LESSER of the two winner must play the #1 seed, while the GREATER of the two winners play the #2 seed.
It does get a bit complicated, but I’ll address that.
I see also in this portal of this universe that there are other factors to consider as well, but we may get to that in a sec.
The rest of the playoff picture seems to look like this: Because Penn State is currently the #3 team by the BCS standards, they will play the #6 team, that being Oklahoma. This leaves the #4 team in Florida to face #5 Texas.
As the number 1 seed, Alabama would face the lowest ranked team of the four and Texas Tech would face the higher seed. The Penn State/Oklahoma game would be a huge game to see, and many fans believe Oklahoma may have an edge because the Big 12 is a stronger conference and they have seen tougher foes than Penn State has faced. Many see Oklahoma winning that.
On the other side, the Florida vs. Texas game seems to be a classic. A delicious game of the two power conferences in a fight to try to settle this year’s argument of who really is the best conference. Forgive me folks, I just can’t see clear enough to tell you the winner of that one.
But it seems that the winner will face Texas Tech as the #2 seed, since Oklahoma’s win over Penn State makes them the lowest seeded team. They would face Alabama and set up a second match of the Big 12 vs. SEC…I do see Oklahoma winning that one.
So it looks like Oklahoma sits and waits for the winner of Texas Tech vs. either Florida or Texas…I think in either case, Texas Tech falls and you have an interesting scenario.
Oklahoma plays a rematch against Texas, or the rubber match of the Big 12 vs. SEC…hmmmm.
But this “what if” universe is not without controversy. Looking outside the playoff circle, Boise State and Utah scream for equality, claiming that the playoffs are not fair to non BCS conference schools. Both teams are undefeated but ranked #9 and #10 on the BCS rankings. The smaller schools scream “foul” and that they need to increase the number of teams in the playoffs. Even Oklahoma State, who’s only loss came to Texas, wonders why Florida is in the playoffs after losing to an unranked team, while the Cowboys hang their only loss to the then number one team in the nation.
And further still, the Pac-10 argues why their conference champion ranked in the top 10 cannot have a shot at the National Title. USC has one loss and is ranked #7 in the BCS polls.
But the ACC and Big East teams remain silent, knowing this wasn’t their year.
Maybe if we look into this universe next week, we can see if it gets clearer….
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Speedblog; Alabama or Penn State
Speedblog: Alabama or Penn State
Well, which is it?
In light of the games over the weekend, we know that both Alabama and Penn State are fighting for that second spot in the polls, ensuring a shot at the National Championship. From what we know at this very second, Texas is still going to be #1 (and should be) but now the question is raised; who is second?
I am sure many SEC fans want Alabama to stay #2, after all they didn’t lose, but now the question has to be raised, what about Penn State?
Both Alabama and Penn State are undefeated and deserve a chance at the championship, but the fact is only one can go, if all three teams finish out undefeated. There is no doubt that if Texas sweeps the schedule and win the Big 12 Championship, they deserve to be the best team in the nation. But now you’d have to create the argument about who is second.
And with both teams still perfect, you’d have to look at the strength of schedule and then look in the future for both teams. Let’s start with Alabama.
When you look at Alabama’s schedule thus far, only 3 games really stand out. Their big win over #9 (at the time) Clemson, the win over #3 Georgia and the close game vs. Kentucky. These are the signature wins thus far, but we could also add in some close games that a #2 team should not have had a problem with.
We know that Clemson was over rated and may not even qualify for a bowl, and while Georgia is still “in the mix”, we may be finding out that Kentucky also overachieved as well. The close win over Mississippi can have some people wondering how legit this team is, especially when you compare it to other teams that dominate their games, but may have one loss.
Penn State would make it’s argument in that they defeated Oregon State, Wisconsin, Michigan, #20 ranked Illinois and recently, #9 Ohio State. But you’d have to factor out Michigan because like Clemson, they may not make a bowl. And although Wisconsin started out good, they have stumbled heavily. But that win last night AT Ohio State was huge, and you now have to wonder if this team should be ranked ahead of Alabama.
The BCS rankings at this moment have Alabama with a .9487 and Penn State with a .8666. That’s quite a difference between two teams in the top 3, meaning Penn State needs the wins, and quality ones at that. They got that last night, while Alabama beat a Tennessee team that is currently 3-5. So who is the better team?
According to Alabama’s schedule, their next game is against Arkansas State, then they play slipping LSU, Mississippi State and finally Auburn. IF they get through all this, they’ll play in the SEC Championship against Georgia or Florida. I still don’t see them winning all their games, but if they do, it might be enough to have them #2 in the nation.
But it is possible they might flip with Penn State before then. Remember that the voters have a sway in this, and some might feel that Penn State’s win at Ohio State was enough to jump over Alabama. With just 3 games left, Penn State plays Iowa, Indiana and finally, Michigan State. Only one quality game left, and their regular season is over. For Penn State to stay #2, they need Michigan State to get back on the top 25 rankings so that game will have a greater meaning.
If both teams go undefeated, Alabama might get the nod because their schedule is slightly tougher. But Penn State might get the nod this week because of the big win. Alabama won’t help themselves next week with a weak game, but they still have a chance to step over Penn State if they win out, and win the SEC Championship.
But the odds are against them, I don’t see Alabama going undefeated, and it looks like Penn State just might be in the BCS Championship…any chance of a Rose Bowl look-alike (hint, USC?)
Well, which is it?
In light of the games over the weekend, we know that both Alabama and Penn State are fighting for that second spot in the polls, ensuring a shot at the National Championship. From what we know at this very second, Texas is still going to be #1 (and should be) but now the question is raised; who is second?
I am sure many SEC fans want Alabama to stay #2, after all they didn’t lose, but now the question has to be raised, what about Penn State?
Both Alabama and Penn State are undefeated and deserve a chance at the championship, but the fact is only one can go, if all three teams finish out undefeated. There is no doubt that if Texas sweeps the schedule and win the Big 12 Championship, they deserve to be the best team in the nation. But now you’d have to create the argument about who is second.
And with both teams still perfect, you’d have to look at the strength of schedule and then look in the future for both teams. Let’s start with Alabama.
When you look at Alabama’s schedule thus far, only 3 games really stand out. Their big win over #9 (at the time) Clemson, the win over #3 Georgia and the close game vs. Kentucky. These are the signature wins thus far, but we could also add in some close games that a #2 team should not have had a problem with.
We know that Clemson was over rated and may not even qualify for a bowl, and while Georgia is still “in the mix”, we may be finding out that Kentucky also overachieved as well. The close win over Mississippi can have some people wondering how legit this team is, especially when you compare it to other teams that dominate their games, but may have one loss.
Penn State would make it’s argument in that they defeated Oregon State, Wisconsin, Michigan, #20 ranked Illinois and recently, #9 Ohio State. But you’d have to factor out Michigan because like Clemson, they may not make a bowl. And although Wisconsin started out good, they have stumbled heavily. But that win last night AT Ohio State was huge, and you now have to wonder if this team should be ranked ahead of Alabama.
The BCS rankings at this moment have Alabama with a .9487 and Penn State with a .8666. That’s quite a difference between two teams in the top 3, meaning Penn State needs the wins, and quality ones at that. They got that last night, while Alabama beat a Tennessee team that is currently 3-5. So who is the better team?
According to Alabama’s schedule, their next game is against Arkansas State, then they play slipping LSU, Mississippi State and finally Auburn. IF they get through all this, they’ll play in the SEC Championship against Georgia or Florida. I still don’t see them winning all their games, but if they do, it might be enough to have them #2 in the nation.
But it is possible they might flip with Penn State before then. Remember that the voters have a sway in this, and some might feel that Penn State’s win at Ohio State was enough to jump over Alabama. With just 3 games left, Penn State plays Iowa, Indiana and finally, Michigan State. Only one quality game left, and their regular season is over. For Penn State to stay #2, they need Michigan State to get back on the top 25 rankings so that game will have a greater meaning.
If both teams go undefeated, Alabama might get the nod because their schedule is slightly tougher. But Penn State might get the nod this week because of the big win. Alabama won’t help themselves next week with a weak game, but they still have a chance to step over Penn State if they win out, and win the SEC Championship.
But the odds are against them, I don’t see Alabama going undefeated, and it looks like Penn State just might be in the BCS Championship…any chance of a Rose Bowl look-alike (hint, USC?)
Monday, October 20, 2008
Alabama VS Penn State
Alabama Football: Can they go Undefeated?
As of Monday, October 20th of 2008, we can all agree to some degree that Alabama is the second best team in the nation. With the current BCS poll out, we see that the clear number 1 at the moment is Texas, and I don’t think anybody is going to argue that.
Second place is Alabama, with Penn State behind. These three teams are all undefeated, and come out of three different conferences. It’s a cinch that any two teams that finish undefeated will play in the Championship Bowl, especially if they come out of the Big 12 and the SEC.
But I wondered if Penn State might be slightly better than Alabama, and thus should have maybe moved up over the Tide. Well, let’s look at this and see if there is any credibility to my argument.
What I am going to do is look at each game and see who should have the upper hand between Alabama and Penn State. We’re going on a wide assumption that Texas will go undefeated, but understand that this is just speculation. Any team can lose on any Saturday.
The fact that Alabama’s BCS rating of .9487 and Penn State’s rating of .8666 seems to imply that there is a pretty valid argument for Alabama is better suited for the second spot, let’s examine this game by game:
First game: Alabama beats #9 ranked Clemson in Clemson 34-10 while Penn State beats Coastal Carolina at home 66-10.
At the beginning of they year, there is no question that of the two games, Alabama looked MUCH better. Penn State beat a team they were supposed to beat, while Alabama pulled off one of the early surprises of the year. This is what rocketed the Tide off to a great start.
Second game: Alabama beats Tulane at home 20-6 while Penn State crushes Oregon State 45-14 at home.
Of these two games, Penn State had the tougher challenge, and proved that a good team can beat another good team with that kind of margin. Alabama handles their business against a lesser foe, but maybe the low score comes of the high of beating Clemson the week before. If I said Alabama was the better of the two schools after the first game, I might still have Alabama better but with Penn State gaining on a slim margin.
Third game: Alabama beats Western Kentucky 41-7 at home while Penn State beats Syracuse AT Syracuse 55-13.
This one is almost even, since neither of the two losing teams makes a heavy impact on the National Championship team. But if you forced me to pick a better team from this, I have to say Penn State ONLY because Syracuse is from a power conference school. This also implies that if Syracuse was to play Western Kentucky, then the Orangemen should win. But that’s theory. So after three games, I might have both Alabama and Penn State about dead even.
Game four: Alabama beats Arkansas AT Arkansas 49-14 while Penn State beats Temple at home 45-3.
I give Alabama the nod here because even though Arkansas is rebuilding, it is still a conference game and Alabama had to win that away from home. Penn State has a home game against Temple…even I could win that game if I had some friends come over and suit up. So I give the nod to Alabama after four games.
Game five: Alabama slaps #3 Georgia in their face, in the Bulldogs’ home 41-30 while Penn State beats #22 Illinois 38-24 at home.
Both quality wins to be sure, but there is no denying that to beat a then high ranked team in their house is much better than beating a lower ranked team while at home. That is not to take anything away from Penn State, it’s just that Alabama’s win was clearly more impressive. Give a strong nod to Alabama.
Game six: Alabama escapes Kentucky 17-14 at home while Penn State travels to Purdue and win 20-6.
Two key conference games, but different looks on it. Sure, Alabama won, but it was close to a team many thought was overachieving with a soft schedule. You could justify it by saying it was a letdown after the big win at Georgia. Penn State wins a game against a mid-card team in Purdue, but a conference game nevertheless. I’d like to say this one would be about even, but if forced to pick I would say PSU’s win is slightly better ONLY because it was an away game. But overall, I still have Alabama as the better team of the two.
Game seven: Alabama survives a home game vs. Ole Miss 24-20 while Penn State stomps on Wisconsin AT Wisconsin 48-7.
I know the Badgers ain’t what they were last year but this is still a big win for Penn State to beat a conference foe in their house by this much. Alabama has actually had a few games that were too close for call, and it could signal the actual strength of the team. Granted every conference game can be tough, but beating Ole Miss by 4 points in your house does not compare to crushing a conference foe known for winning by over 40 points. Huge nod to Penn State for this week, and it draws the two teams even to me.
Now we know Alabama has not played an 8th game yet, but Penn State has, defeating Michigan at home 46-17. This win, even against a rebuilding conference foe, is a strong indication of how well Penn State is playing. If I give credit to Alabama for beating a rebuilding Arkansas, I must give the same to PSU. So although with unbalanced games at this point, I might have Penn State ahead of Alabama with a slight nod.
But let’s look at the strength of schedule. Alabama’s foes are currently 24-25, with key teams being Georgia at 6-1 and Kentucky at 5-2. Penn State’s foes are currently 22-35 with strong teams being Illinois at 4-3 and Oregon State at 4-3. If you had to look at it this way, I might have to agree that Alabama is currently slightly better than Penn State, but not by a whole lot.
I think the game vs. Costal Carolina may hurt Penn State’s strength of schedule, but I guess I cannot argue about Alabama being #2. This does not mean it will end that way, because if Alabama loses any games, they will fall hard, and I just can’t see Alabama running the tables in the SEC AND winning the SEC Championship. In fact, it would not surprise me if they lost 2 games before the end of the season. The LSU game is their biggest, but they better not forget Tennessee or Auburn. Penn State has a huge game against Ohio State and one at the end of the season against Michigan State.
It’s not a cakewalk for either team, but if both finish out, and go perfect, you have to give the nod, however slight, to Alabama.
As of Monday, October 20th of 2008, we can all agree to some degree that Alabama is the second best team in the nation. With the current BCS poll out, we see that the clear number 1 at the moment is Texas, and I don’t think anybody is going to argue that.
Second place is Alabama, with Penn State behind. These three teams are all undefeated, and come out of three different conferences. It’s a cinch that any two teams that finish undefeated will play in the Championship Bowl, especially if they come out of the Big 12 and the SEC.
But I wondered if Penn State might be slightly better than Alabama, and thus should have maybe moved up over the Tide. Well, let’s look at this and see if there is any credibility to my argument.
What I am going to do is look at each game and see who should have the upper hand between Alabama and Penn State. We’re going on a wide assumption that Texas will go undefeated, but understand that this is just speculation. Any team can lose on any Saturday.
The fact that Alabama’s BCS rating of .9487 and Penn State’s rating of .8666 seems to imply that there is a pretty valid argument for Alabama is better suited for the second spot, let’s examine this game by game:
First game: Alabama beats #9 ranked Clemson in Clemson 34-10 while Penn State beats Coastal Carolina at home 66-10.
At the beginning of they year, there is no question that of the two games, Alabama looked MUCH better. Penn State beat a team they were supposed to beat, while Alabama pulled off one of the early surprises of the year. This is what rocketed the Tide off to a great start.
Second game: Alabama beats Tulane at home 20-6 while Penn State crushes Oregon State 45-14 at home.
Of these two games, Penn State had the tougher challenge, and proved that a good team can beat another good team with that kind of margin. Alabama handles their business against a lesser foe, but maybe the low score comes of the high of beating Clemson the week before. If I said Alabama was the better of the two schools after the first game, I might still have Alabama better but with Penn State gaining on a slim margin.
Third game: Alabama beats Western Kentucky 41-7 at home while Penn State beats Syracuse AT Syracuse 55-13.
This one is almost even, since neither of the two losing teams makes a heavy impact on the National Championship team. But if you forced me to pick a better team from this, I have to say Penn State ONLY because Syracuse is from a power conference school. This also implies that if Syracuse was to play Western Kentucky, then the Orangemen should win. But that’s theory. So after three games, I might have both Alabama and Penn State about dead even.
Game four: Alabama beats Arkansas AT Arkansas 49-14 while Penn State beats Temple at home 45-3.
I give Alabama the nod here because even though Arkansas is rebuilding, it is still a conference game and Alabama had to win that away from home. Penn State has a home game against Temple…even I could win that game if I had some friends come over and suit up. So I give the nod to Alabama after four games.
Game five: Alabama slaps #3 Georgia in their face, in the Bulldogs’ home 41-30 while Penn State beats #22 Illinois 38-24 at home.
Both quality wins to be sure, but there is no denying that to beat a then high ranked team in their house is much better than beating a lower ranked team while at home. That is not to take anything away from Penn State, it’s just that Alabama’s win was clearly more impressive. Give a strong nod to Alabama.
Game six: Alabama escapes Kentucky 17-14 at home while Penn State travels to Purdue and win 20-6.
Two key conference games, but different looks on it. Sure, Alabama won, but it was close to a team many thought was overachieving with a soft schedule. You could justify it by saying it was a letdown after the big win at Georgia. Penn State wins a game against a mid-card team in Purdue, but a conference game nevertheless. I’d like to say this one would be about even, but if forced to pick I would say PSU’s win is slightly better ONLY because it was an away game. But overall, I still have Alabama as the better team of the two.
Game seven: Alabama survives a home game vs. Ole Miss 24-20 while Penn State stomps on Wisconsin AT Wisconsin 48-7.
I know the Badgers ain’t what they were last year but this is still a big win for Penn State to beat a conference foe in their house by this much. Alabama has actually had a few games that were too close for call, and it could signal the actual strength of the team. Granted every conference game can be tough, but beating Ole Miss by 4 points in your house does not compare to crushing a conference foe known for winning by over 40 points. Huge nod to Penn State for this week, and it draws the two teams even to me.
Now we know Alabama has not played an 8th game yet, but Penn State has, defeating Michigan at home 46-17. This win, even against a rebuilding conference foe, is a strong indication of how well Penn State is playing. If I give credit to Alabama for beating a rebuilding Arkansas, I must give the same to PSU. So although with unbalanced games at this point, I might have Penn State ahead of Alabama with a slight nod.
But let’s look at the strength of schedule. Alabama’s foes are currently 24-25, with key teams being Georgia at 6-1 and Kentucky at 5-2. Penn State’s foes are currently 22-35 with strong teams being Illinois at 4-3 and Oregon State at 4-3. If you had to look at it this way, I might have to agree that Alabama is currently slightly better than Penn State, but not by a whole lot.
I think the game vs. Costal Carolina may hurt Penn State’s strength of schedule, but I guess I cannot argue about Alabama being #2. This does not mean it will end that way, because if Alabama loses any games, they will fall hard, and I just can’t see Alabama running the tables in the SEC AND winning the SEC Championship. In fact, it would not surprise me if they lost 2 games before the end of the season. The LSU game is their biggest, but they better not forget Tennessee or Auburn. Penn State has a huge game against Ohio State and one at the end of the season against Michigan State.
It’s not a cakewalk for either team, but if both finish out, and go perfect, you have to give the nod, however slight, to Alabama.
The BCS Standings, first view
The First BCS Rankings of 2008
Now note, this isn’t the FIRST showing of the BCS rankings, I may well be the last guy to talk about it this week, but it is the first poll of the season. I thought we’d take a look at it and see if there is any surprises.
Before the rankings came out, I actually thought there was a chance that Penn State might jump over Alabama. I know both are undefeated, but it seemed like Penn State’s crushing win over Michigan seemed more convincing than Alabama’s win over Ole Miss. I thought there might be a slight chance of that happening, not that it would.
So Texas is number 1, no surprise there. With that big win over Oklahoma and a win over Missouri, this IS the best team in the NCAA…for now. There is no question here, if Texas runs the tables, they are in. But here’s another bit for you, if ANY Big 12 team that is currently undefeated runs the tables, they are in. The conference is just too good to NOT have the Big 12 in the National Championship. Texas scores a .9979 out of a 10, so that is near perfect…as it should be.
Alabama is second with a BCS rating of .9487. I mentioned earlier that I thought there might be a chance of Penn State jumping over them, not that I would argue either way. I think if Alabama sweeps the SEC, they obviously are in… but I will debate the strength of schedule.
Yes they beat Clemson, but where is Clemson now? They’ll be lucky to even make a bowl. Tulane, Western Kentucky and Arkansas aren’t scaring anybody, and we know Arkansas is in a rebuilding year. Granted the Georgia game was incredible, but adding on wins over a Kentucky team that has a soft schedule and ANY Mississippi team, and I gotta tell you, I am just not convinced that this is the second best team in the nation.
That’s not a knock against Alabama fans, because you always cheer for your team, regardless of the situation (CLEMSON) but to me, I don’t agree with the BCS having Alabama here. But IF they sweep, they will have proven that they are the second best team in the nation.
Penn State holds position at #3 with a .8666 and you can now make an argument of the “what ifs”. The media does this every year, stirring questions without giving time for things to play out. What if Texas, Alabama and Penn State finish undefeated?
I thought PSU would jump but when you look at the schedule, I guess I can see why they didn’t. They do have a couple of quality wins, but the Wisconsin game should have helped Penn State out, but they also needed the Badgers to not flop like they are currently doing. And wins against Temple and Syracuse isn’t raising any eyebrows either. They’re gonna have to beat Ohio State and hope Michigan State finishes in the top 25 by the end of the year to have a chance to jump over Alabama. Penn State needs QUALITY wins if the top two teams aren’t budging. But this is the curse of the Big 10, without a conference championship, you don’t get that extra game to make your point.
Oklahoma is 4th with a .8319 and we all know that their loss was against Texas. Now here is something to think about. What if Oklahoma wins the rest of their games and Alabama loses one game? Is it possible that with ranked teams Texas Tech AND Oklahoma State left on the schedule, could Oklahoma jump into a second spot, OVER Penn State?
I mean, it COULD happen. The strength of schedule is in Oklahoma’s favor….
Just thinking out loud…..
USC rounds out the top 5 at a ranking of .7751, a far cry from the Championship game unless things happen. The problem for USC is that currently, NONE of the remaining teams on the schedule are ranked, so we’re looking at a very weak schedule. They may have to crush everybody 69-0 to get some serious looks, but that one loss against Oregon State may have done them in. There is still hope to move up, but they won’t get any help from the remaining teams. MAYBE Cal, and there might be some mercy votes for Notre Dame, but outside of that, they are kinda in the same boat as Penn State. Without a Pac-10 Championship to stir the pot, they are at the mercy of the other teams above them.
I’ll probably get in more detail on this in another blog, as you guys know I am blogging more on Blogspot than on Wordpress and Blogster, Until then….
http://raidersaint.blogspot.com/
Now note, this isn’t the FIRST showing of the BCS rankings, I may well be the last guy to talk about it this week, but it is the first poll of the season. I thought we’d take a look at it and see if there is any surprises.
Before the rankings came out, I actually thought there was a chance that Penn State might jump over Alabama. I know both are undefeated, but it seemed like Penn State’s crushing win over Michigan seemed more convincing than Alabama’s win over Ole Miss. I thought there might be a slight chance of that happening, not that it would.
So Texas is number 1, no surprise there. With that big win over Oklahoma and a win over Missouri, this IS the best team in the NCAA…for now. There is no question here, if Texas runs the tables, they are in. But here’s another bit for you, if ANY Big 12 team that is currently undefeated runs the tables, they are in. The conference is just too good to NOT have the Big 12 in the National Championship. Texas scores a .9979 out of a 10, so that is near perfect…as it should be.
Alabama is second with a BCS rating of .9487. I mentioned earlier that I thought there might be a chance of Penn State jumping over them, not that I would argue either way. I think if Alabama sweeps the SEC, they obviously are in… but I will debate the strength of schedule.
Yes they beat Clemson, but where is Clemson now? They’ll be lucky to even make a bowl. Tulane, Western Kentucky and Arkansas aren’t scaring anybody, and we know Arkansas is in a rebuilding year. Granted the Georgia game was incredible, but adding on wins over a Kentucky team that has a soft schedule and ANY Mississippi team, and I gotta tell you, I am just not convinced that this is the second best team in the nation.
That’s not a knock against Alabama fans, because you always cheer for your team, regardless of the situation (CLEMSON) but to me, I don’t agree with the BCS having Alabama here. But IF they sweep, they will have proven that they are the second best team in the nation.
Penn State holds position at #3 with a .8666 and you can now make an argument of the “what ifs”. The media does this every year, stirring questions without giving time for things to play out. What if Texas, Alabama and Penn State finish undefeated?
I thought PSU would jump but when you look at the schedule, I guess I can see why they didn’t. They do have a couple of quality wins, but the Wisconsin game should have helped Penn State out, but they also needed the Badgers to not flop like they are currently doing. And wins against Temple and Syracuse isn’t raising any eyebrows either. They’re gonna have to beat Ohio State and hope Michigan State finishes in the top 25 by the end of the year to have a chance to jump over Alabama. Penn State needs QUALITY wins if the top two teams aren’t budging. But this is the curse of the Big 10, without a conference championship, you don’t get that extra game to make your point.
Oklahoma is 4th with a .8319 and we all know that their loss was against Texas. Now here is something to think about. What if Oklahoma wins the rest of their games and Alabama loses one game? Is it possible that with ranked teams Texas Tech AND Oklahoma State left on the schedule, could Oklahoma jump into a second spot, OVER Penn State?
I mean, it COULD happen. The strength of schedule is in Oklahoma’s favor….
Just thinking out loud…..
USC rounds out the top 5 at a ranking of .7751, a far cry from the Championship game unless things happen. The problem for USC is that currently, NONE of the remaining teams on the schedule are ranked, so we’re looking at a very weak schedule. They may have to crush everybody 69-0 to get some serious looks, but that one loss against Oregon State may have done them in. There is still hope to move up, but they won’t get any help from the remaining teams. MAYBE Cal, and there might be some mercy votes for Notre Dame, but outside of that, they are kinda in the same boat as Penn State. Without a Pac-10 Championship to stir the pot, they are at the mercy of the other teams above them.
I’ll probably get in more detail on this in another blog, as you guys know I am blogging more on Blogspot than on Wordpress and Blogster, Until then….
http://raidersaint.blogspot.com/
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The BEST college football team
The BEST college football team
With a little more than an hour before the Saturday begins with the college games, I wanted to take a moment to consider who the best college football team really is. I mean, it is actually a theoretical question because nobody can really answer that. Sure we have our rankings and the BCS poll is due out this weekend, so we can get an idea of what the theory is on the best team.
What I mean by “best” is the idea that this team is better than all others, and can beat them more times than they lose. Notice what I said there, in that even the best teams CAN lose. Some of you might argue that it then would not make them best, but that is not correct. I said “best” not “perfect”. Nobody can say who is perfect but we can give our opinions on who is the “best”.
Just look at the polls. There is the AP Poll, the USA Today Poll, the Harris Poll, the Legends Poll, and tons of other polls across the country. This proves that we all have an opinion to what we believe the best team actually is. But remember, it’s just an opinion. And opinions are often based on a bias.
For example, I have nothing against Florida State, and we know they won Thursday against NC State, but if there was a top 30 poll, FSU would be on it. Some say they may make the top 25 this week. I can’t see it.
You’re telling me that a team that beat TWO Southern Conference teams and has beaten no team with a better than .500 record is amongst the top 30 in the nation? I am not convinced. That is not to say it won’t change, because if they sweep the schedule, then they would have proven it. But as of now, I cannot see why some people have them near the top 25.
But that’s their opinion.
And how Notre Dame is even GETTING votes is just insane. You can tell who’s been brown-nosing with votes like that.
Still, the idea is to determine the BEST team in the NCAA. How do you do that without being biased? I mean, how many of you saw Texas beat Oklahoma on television last week? That game influenced a LOT of people, and rightly so. But others felt Alabama was slighted because they did not play last weekend…it also factored in that they had a pretty weak showing in their last game.
In the AP Poll, the #1 team and the #10 team are separated by 518 votes. That’s pretty tight. In the USA Poll, first and 10th are separated by 547 votes. So what really makes a team the “best”?
The easiest thing to say is a team’s record, but that is subject to debate. I mean, really, if records determined the best teams, then Tulsa should be up there in the top 10. I think there are 10 remaining undefeated teams in Division I (yeah I know, FBS, but who cares). And if you ARE going by records as the priority, then any team with a loss should be out of the top 10. That includes USC, Ohio State, Florida, Georgia and Oklahoma.
So we have to agree that a team’s record is NOT the deciding factor of whether that team is the best. A second argument would be the strength of schedule, which is quite valid.
I mean, if you play 11 teams with a losing record, do you really think you deserve a chance to play in the National Championship? Your perfect record is a weak structure of non-competitive games, and does not make for a great team.
But by this measure, this hurts a lot of the smaller conferences. Teams like Ball State are going to be judged by this because their schedule is not nearly as tough as teams like Texas or Florida or Ohio State. Should that take away from their greatness?
Well, sadly, it must.
The sympathetic way to look at this is to just GIVE a team a shot at a national title if they go undefeated, but that is not how it works. The National Championship goes to the two BEST teams in the nation…you have to be the BEST. Ball State is playing very well, no doubt about that, but could you really say that they are one of the two best teams in the nation, even if they go undefeated?
Their conference makes for a weaker strength of schedule, and this isn’t their fault, this is just the nature of the Division I. But we cannot ignore that strength of schedule plays a big role.
And consider this as well, strength of schedule changes weekly, and should be adjusted in the teams.
For example, when BYU beat Washington, many thought this was a big victory for BYU, even though Washington wasn’t very good last year. Then the win over UCLA seemed to indicate that BYU was clearly one of the best teams in the nation. Defeating two Pac-10 teams, whoever they are, is a nice feather.
But as the season went on, we began to see that maybe those two teams wasn’t as good as we gave them credit for. Maybe BYU didn’t beat quality teams and thus were riding opinionated shoulders to the rankings.
Even UCLA is proof of that, they started out their season beating Tennessee, which most saw as a HUGE upset…but Tennessee at this point isn’t as good as we thought, so the idea of their greatness and the actuality are now in great contrast. They just are not the team we thought they were….to kinda twist a phrase by Dennis Green.
Even USC’s big win over Virginia at the beginning of the year proves the every changing strength of schedule. When Southern Cal mopped up Virginia, the media was already crowning the Trojans as the National Champs. I mean, Virginia is a great team, so to whip them like a dog proves that USC was great, right?
But now that same Virginia is struggling just to make it to a bowl, and a loss today to UNC might mark the end of the season. And of course, USC lost that game to Oregon State, and now are praying for a few upsets to get back in the race.
Every game, every weekend changes the strength of schedule for every team trying to make it to that coveted BCS Championship, but right now, two teams are in the driver’s seat: Texas and Alabama. About 40-50 votes separate them, which also brings in a third factor, something they call “style points”.
The NCAA tried to ignore this in their BCS equation, but to me that is foolish. You tell me who gets more consideration and more votes: Texas beats Missouri IN Texas by a score of 35-30, Alabama beats Mississippi IN Alabama 21-6 or Penn State beating Ohio State AT Ohio 35-14.
Tell me who has the greater influence on the voters?
It’s the human element of impressing voters and it cannot be ruled out. I don’t care what anyone else says, the more points you score, the more votes you are going to get. If you crush a team 56-3 and another team beats that same opponent 17-14, you look much better. It proves that you were more dominant against a common foe.
Now, does that mean you are better…not necessarily, but it does give voters a reason to THINK you are.
This is a topic that I think the media will be debating for a long time, which is why some want the playoffs. Personally, I like debate, so it does not bother me at all. But at any rate, it’s something to think about.
Anyway, it’s less than an hour before kickoff, gotta get ready!
With a little more than an hour before the Saturday begins with the college games, I wanted to take a moment to consider who the best college football team really is. I mean, it is actually a theoretical question because nobody can really answer that. Sure we have our rankings and the BCS poll is due out this weekend, so we can get an idea of what the theory is on the best team.
What I mean by “best” is the idea that this team is better than all others, and can beat them more times than they lose. Notice what I said there, in that even the best teams CAN lose. Some of you might argue that it then would not make them best, but that is not correct. I said “best” not “perfect”. Nobody can say who is perfect but we can give our opinions on who is the “best”.
Just look at the polls. There is the AP Poll, the USA Today Poll, the Harris Poll, the Legends Poll, and tons of other polls across the country. This proves that we all have an opinion to what we believe the best team actually is. But remember, it’s just an opinion. And opinions are often based on a bias.
For example, I have nothing against Florida State, and we know they won Thursday against NC State, but if there was a top 30 poll, FSU would be on it. Some say they may make the top 25 this week. I can’t see it.
You’re telling me that a team that beat TWO Southern Conference teams and has beaten no team with a better than .500 record is amongst the top 30 in the nation? I am not convinced. That is not to say it won’t change, because if they sweep the schedule, then they would have proven it. But as of now, I cannot see why some people have them near the top 25.
But that’s their opinion.
And how Notre Dame is even GETTING votes is just insane. You can tell who’s been brown-nosing with votes like that.
Still, the idea is to determine the BEST team in the NCAA. How do you do that without being biased? I mean, how many of you saw Texas beat Oklahoma on television last week? That game influenced a LOT of people, and rightly so. But others felt Alabama was slighted because they did not play last weekend…it also factored in that they had a pretty weak showing in their last game.
In the AP Poll, the #1 team and the #10 team are separated by 518 votes. That’s pretty tight. In the USA Poll, first and 10th are separated by 547 votes. So what really makes a team the “best”?
The easiest thing to say is a team’s record, but that is subject to debate. I mean, really, if records determined the best teams, then Tulsa should be up there in the top 10. I think there are 10 remaining undefeated teams in Division I (yeah I know, FBS, but who cares). And if you ARE going by records as the priority, then any team with a loss should be out of the top 10. That includes USC, Ohio State, Florida, Georgia and Oklahoma.
So we have to agree that a team’s record is NOT the deciding factor of whether that team is the best. A second argument would be the strength of schedule, which is quite valid.
I mean, if you play 11 teams with a losing record, do you really think you deserve a chance to play in the National Championship? Your perfect record is a weak structure of non-competitive games, and does not make for a great team.
But by this measure, this hurts a lot of the smaller conferences. Teams like Ball State are going to be judged by this because their schedule is not nearly as tough as teams like Texas or Florida or Ohio State. Should that take away from their greatness?
Well, sadly, it must.
The sympathetic way to look at this is to just GIVE a team a shot at a national title if they go undefeated, but that is not how it works. The National Championship goes to the two BEST teams in the nation…you have to be the BEST. Ball State is playing very well, no doubt about that, but could you really say that they are one of the two best teams in the nation, even if they go undefeated?
Their conference makes for a weaker strength of schedule, and this isn’t their fault, this is just the nature of the Division I. But we cannot ignore that strength of schedule plays a big role.
And consider this as well, strength of schedule changes weekly, and should be adjusted in the teams.
For example, when BYU beat Washington, many thought this was a big victory for BYU, even though Washington wasn’t very good last year. Then the win over UCLA seemed to indicate that BYU was clearly one of the best teams in the nation. Defeating two Pac-10 teams, whoever they are, is a nice feather.
But as the season went on, we began to see that maybe those two teams wasn’t as good as we gave them credit for. Maybe BYU didn’t beat quality teams and thus were riding opinionated shoulders to the rankings.
Even UCLA is proof of that, they started out their season beating Tennessee, which most saw as a HUGE upset…but Tennessee at this point isn’t as good as we thought, so the idea of their greatness and the actuality are now in great contrast. They just are not the team we thought they were….to kinda twist a phrase by Dennis Green.
Even USC’s big win over Virginia at the beginning of the year proves the every changing strength of schedule. When Southern Cal mopped up Virginia, the media was already crowning the Trojans as the National Champs. I mean, Virginia is a great team, so to whip them like a dog proves that USC was great, right?
But now that same Virginia is struggling just to make it to a bowl, and a loss today to UNC might mark the end of the season. And of course, USC lost that game to Oregon State, and now are praying for a few upsets to get back in the race.
Every game, every weekend changes the strength of schedule for every team trying to make it to that coveted BCS Championship, but right now, two teams are in the driver’s seat: Texas and Alabama. About 40-50 votes separate them, which also brings in a third factor, something they call “style points”.
The NCAA tried to ignore this in their BCS equation, but to me that is foolish. You tell me who gets more consideration and more votes: Texas beats Missouri IN Texas by a score of 35-30, Alabama beats Mississippi IN Alabama 21-6 or Penn State beating Ohio State AT Ohio 35-14.
Tell me who has the greater influence on the voters?
It’s the human element of impressing voters and it cannot be ruled out. I don’t care what anyone else says, the more points you score, the more votes you are going to get. If you crush a team 56-3 and another team beats that same opponent 17-14, you look much better. It proves that you were more dominant against a common foe.
Now, does that mean you are better…not necessarily, but it does give voters a reason to THINK you are.
This is a topic that I think the media will be debating for a long time, which is why some want the playoffs. Personally, I like debate, so it does not bother me at all. But at any rate, it’s something to think about.
Anyway, it’s less than an hour before kickoff, gotta get ready!
Monday, October 13, 2008
Alabama Football and the BCS
Alabama Football and the BCS
There’s a lot of whining going on about whether Alabama should have been the #1 team in the nation after a bye week, and Texas jumping over them to take the #1 spot. I watched “Around the Horn” and “Pardon The Interruption” (two of my favorite shows) and listened to the opinions. It amazed me at how there seemed to be two sides.
Folks…what does it matter? Whether you are #1 or #2, if the season ended today, you are still in. Stop whining!
But now the questions become a little more interesting. CAN Alabama actually go undefeated? That’s a hard question, so let’s take a moment to look at that.
Alabama started out the season defeating #9 ranked Clemson, who has since then taken a nosedive and may not even make it to a bowl. You’d have to question the strength of Alabama but you cannot fault them for beating a team that wasn’t as good as all the hype.
Ok, so they’re 1-0 and looking impressive, although now you’d have to wonder about whether they beat a good team, or a team that was bogus to the top 25.
Game two against Tulane, a team that had a losing record last year, and apparently will continue that trend this year. Beating a current 2-4 team by 14 points AT home isn’t really as impressive as you’d like, but again, you cannot blame the team for beating the teams on their schedule. So now Alabama is 2-0.
Another home game vs. Western Kentucky and a big win 41-7 and now Alabama is looking decent at 3-0. But Western Kentucky is 2-5, and you really have to wonder if Alabama is good, or taking advantage of a soft schedule.
This sounds like I am picking at Alabama, but we’re talking about NATIONAL Champions here, so we have to determine if this team really is ready for that spotlight. I mean, at this moment, let’s call it what it is…Alabama has been fortunate to win these games while the other teams have been losing big time games. Are we looking at a legitimate team, or just one holding the #2 spot for awhile?
Alabama goes on the road and defeats Arkansas 49-14, an impressive SEC win against a mid card team. But Arkansas is 3-3 and was questionable in strength until they defeated Auburn recently. Perhaps there is some cred to this Alabama team after all. Now you’d have to at least say they are a decent team.
Then comes the shocker…kicking Georgia’s behind in their own home 41-30. Georgia was ranked as high as #3 in a poll, some had them #1, so now you really have to look at this game and say that Alabama is a GOOD team.
But Georgia’s got a much tougher schedule coming up, playing 3 ranked teams in a row. What if they fail that test and slip 5-4 or 6-3? Alabama actually needs Georgia to play well to justify their win, if they fall off the map like Clemson, it will dilute their strength. Time will tell how that part of the story makes out.
Then there’s Kentucky, and the narrow 3 point win Alabama got in their house. Kentucky just a couple of weeks ago was sitting near the top with an undefeated record, but I blogged about how soft that schedule was, and they have since lost their last 2 games. I can see Kentucky losing 4 more games before the season is over.
So that brings us to where we are now…is Alabama the real thing? Should they have been worth the #1 ranking? My answer is no. And again, the truth to this is the simple fact that right now it does not matter. If this was the end of the season, they would be in the National Championship anyway, so what does it matter whether they are #1 or #2?
The real debate is, can they stay there.
Of the teams Alabama has played, Georgia seems a lock to a bowl, Kentucky SHOULD be able to get one. The others…maybe not. Of the games that Alabama has to play, it could be the same. Mississippi is their next target, a team that just knocked off Florida…this could be a trap for Alabama, but I’ll give the Crimson Tide the victory because they are home. Unless Mississippi turns it up a notch, they might not go to a bowl either.
An away game at a VERY desperate Tennessee team could be a coin toss. Yeah, Tennessee is having a tough year, but 100,000 people in that stadium could give the Volunteers everything to play for. If Tennessee is to go to a bowl this year, this might the game that determines if they can even qualify…this game is serious.
Alabama has an easy game vs. Arkansas State at home before the big game vs. LSU. This away game means everything to both teams. It means redemption for LSU with that whipping they got from Florida, and it is a statement game for Alabama. THIS is the game everyone is circling on the calendar as the big one. But it will be interesting to see if they can get here undefeated. Can they?
If so, they finish the season at home vs. Mississippi State and Auburn, two teams having troubles too. How important is that LSU game? If LSU wins, and both teams finish even in the division, LSU wins on the tie breaker. I think LSU may take that game, and may control the division by the end of the year. Even if Alabama gets through the season untouched, they’d have to face Florida in the SEC Championship. Either way, nobody survives from the SEC without a loss.
So what does this mean for Alabama? It means a fall late in the season hurts much more than a loss early. Southern Cal and Ohio State still have a chance to get back in the picture, while a loss for Alabama could cut their hopes. And considering the strength of their schedule, the opponents of Alabama might see 3 or 4 bowls…that kinda strength of schedule might show up in the BCS poll.
The ONLY way Alabama is going to get to the National Championship is to win everything…the entire SEC and the Championship. But I am just not that convinced that they can. Nobody gets through the SEC without a loss, and Alabama is no exception.
Right now, 13 teams are at this very second, qualified for a bowl with 6 Division I wins, and Alabama is one of them. They are going bowling, but somehow I just don’t see them in the National Championship…unless they sweep, and that isn’t something I can wager on.
There’s a lot of whining going on about whether Alabama should have been the #1 team in the nation after a bye week, and Texas jumping over them to take the #1 spot. I watched “Around the Horn” and “Pardon The Interruption” (two of my favorite shows) and listened to the opinions. It amazed me at how there seemed to be two sides.
Folks…what does it matter? Whether you are #1 or #2, if the season ended today, you are still in. Stop whining!
But now the questions become a little more interesting. CAN Alabama actually go undefeated? That’s a hard question, so let’s take a moment to look at that.
Alabama started out the season defeating #9 ranked Clemson, who has since then taken a nosedive and may not even make it to a bowl. You’d have to question the strength of Alabama but you cannot fault them for beating a team that wasn’t as good as all the hype.
Ok, so they’re 1-0 and looking impressive, although now you’d have to wonder about whether they beat a good team, or a team that was bogus to the top 25.
Game two against Tulane, a team that had a losing record last year, and apparently will continue that trend this year. Beating a current 2-4 team by 14 points AT home isn’t really as impressive as you’d like, but again, you cannot blame the team for beating the teams on their schedule. So now Alabama is 2-0.
Another home game vs. Western Kentucky and a big win 41-7 and now Alabama is looking decent at 3-0. But Western Kentucky is 2-5, and you really have to wonder if Alabama is good, or taking advantage of a soft schedule.
This sounds like I am picking at Alabama, but we’re talking about NATIONAL Champions here, so we have to determine if this team really is ready for that spotlight. I mean, at this moment, let’s call it what it is…Alabama has been fortunate to win these games while the other teams have been losing big time games. Are we looking at a legitimate team, or just one holding the #2 spot for awhile?
Alabama goes on the road and defeats Arkansas 49-14, an impressive SEC win against a mid card team. But Arkansas is 3-3 and was questionable in strength until they defeated Auburn recently. Perhaps there is some cred to this Alabama team after all. Now you’d have to at least say they are a decent team.
Then comes the shocker…kicking Georgia’s behind in their own home 41-30. Georgia was ranked as high as #3 in a poll, some had them #1, so now you really have to look at this game and say that Alabama is a GOOD team.
But Georgia’s got a much tougher schedule coming up, playing 3 ranked teams in a row. What if they fail that test and slip 5-4 or 6-3? Alabama actually needs Georgia to play well to justify their win, if they fall off the map like Clemson, it will dilute their strength. Time will tell how that part of the story makes out.
Then there’s Kentucky, and the narrow 3 point win Alabama got in their house. Kentucky just a couple of weeks ago was sitting near the top with an undefeated record, but I blogged about how soft that schedule was, and they have since lost their last 2 games. I can see Kentucky losing 4 more games before the season is over.
So that brings us to where we are now…is Alabama the real thing? Should they have been worth the #1 ranking? My answer is no. And again, the truth to this is the simple fact that right now it does not matter. If this was the end of the season, they would be in the National Championship anyway, so what does it matter whether they are #1 or #2?
The real debate is, can they stay there.
Of the teams Alabama has played, Georgia seems a lock to a bowl, Kentucky SHOULD be able to get one. The others…maybe not. Of the games that Alabama has to play, it could be the same. Mississippi is their next target, a team that just knocked off Florida…this could be a trap for Alabama, but I’ll give the Crimson Tide the victory because they are home. Unless Mississippi turns it up a notch, they might not go to a bowl either.
An away game at a VERY desperate Tennessee team could be a coin toss. Yeah, Tennessee is having a tough year, but 100,000 people in that stadium could give the Volunteers everything to play for. If Tennessee is to go to a bowl this year, this might the game that determines if they can even qualify…this game is serious.
Alabama has an easy game vs. Arkansas State at home before the big game vs. LSU. This away game means everything to both teams. It means redemption for LSU with that whipping they got from Florida, and it is a statement game for Alabama. THIS is the game everyone is circling on the calendar as the big one. But it will be interesting to see if they can get here undefeated. Can they?
If so, they finish the season at home vs. Mississippi State and Auburn, two teams having troubles too. How important is that LSU game? If LSU wins, and both teams finish even in the division, LSU wins on the tie breaker. I think LSU may take that game, and may control the division by the end of the year. Even if Alabama gets through the season untouched, they’d have to face Florida in the SEC Championship. Either way, nobody survives from the SEC without a loss.
So what does this mean for Alabama? It means a fall late in the season hurts much more than a loss early. Southern Cal and Ohio State still have a chance to get back in the picture, while a loss for Alabama could cut their hopes. And considering the strength of their schedule, the opponents of Alabama might see 3 or 4 bowls…that kinda strength of schedule might show up in the BCS poll.
The ONLY way Alabama is going to get to the National Championship is to win everything…the entire SEC and the Championship. But I am just not that convinced that they can. Nobody gets through the SEC without a loss, and Alabama is no exception.
Right now, 13 teams are at this very second, qualified for a bowl with 6 Division I wins, and Alabama is one of them. They are going bowling, but somehow I just don’t see them in the National Championship…unless they sweep, and that isn’t something I can wager on.
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